2012 may not be the year the world ends, but it may feel like it’s ending for some. Looking ahead and considering the year to come, here I try and organize some of my thoughts on what kind of year I’m expecting. With the swap out of the calendar later tonight, I always find it a good time to reflect on the year past and consider the year to come.
As I look to the year ahead, there’s no doubt it’ll hold steady for me as my schedule is already looking good. It’ll mostly be a year where a lot personal projects and goals really come together and start to get wrapped up. That’s always exciting to turn new pages and chapters, and in some cases literally; but the tough part is staying focused and not getting carried away thinking about what comes after that.
Actually, as I alluded to in my opening, 2012 gives me the sense it’ll be a tough year for some, requiring focus and discipline from all. This new year seems like it will be a bit of a déjà vu of 2009. The global economy is pretty shaky, with many countries over leveraged with debt. Trends of governments scaling back spending will continue out of necessity. This will likely lead to plenty of political unrest throughout the EU, as they’ll be the hardest hit with drastic action in the coming months.
In the United States, political unrest isn’t as likely, at least not to the same degree as in the EU. Mostly because 2012 is an election year, providing an outlet for a catharsis, as US Americans watch the debates and get caught up in the election campaigns. The dangers here are continued polarized partisanship, lacking any healthy debate or progress for the long-term good of the American people, and instead continuing the tendency of stalemates and partisan political games. At least they don’t need to raise the debt ceiling until 2013, after the election and into a new term. Little drastic change in the US can be expected until then.
Low investor confidence and jittery speculation gives every indication that it’ll be another roller coaster ride for equities. Resources like gold should do well as is the trend to reallocate funds into these safer investments during turbulent times. Oil is expected to stay flat, with prices projected to be around $80-$90 per barrel. (Though, we all know how good they are at predicting the price of oil).
Locally for me and my market, Canada should hold steady, probably without much growth overall. The weaker price of oil will have a negative effect on the value of our dollar; combined with the government’s efforts to curb inflation in 2012 and their spending cuts to get the deficit under control will boast our exports and make Canada attractive for investment.
The downside for a services business is that governments across the board are cutting spending to get their deficits under control. Both the federal and provincial governments have already announced spending cuts, and more are expected. This slow down in government spending will match a slow down in corporate spending as they too brace for a tough year and feel the pressure to show earnings. If oil prices stay below $90 like they’re predicting, that traditionally comes with a slow down in spending in the energy industry too.
Indeed, 2012 doesn’t look to be a year of expansion and wild investment. Much like 2009, it appears to be a year to hold steady and focus on core business strengths. In my market, the major customers might not be looking to shed spending, but they’re also probably not looking for a lot of new things to invest in either (or soon won’t be).
My strategy is to focus more on the mid-market this year; to diversify with smaller, overlapping projects. This is a year to stick to my core and not burn cycles with any low-probability business development activities. But mostly, this is a year to invest in bringing some of my personal projects and goals across the finish line, positioning me well for 2013.
